38% of fleets predict growth in vehicles

Thirty-eight percent – nearly two in five car and van fleets are predicting growth in the number of vehicles they operate in the next three years – up from 29% when asked the same question in 2023.

Also, more than half (56%) believe that numbers will remain stable and just 5% are forecasting that the size of their fleet will fall.

These figures are taken from the 2024 Arval Mobility Observatory Fleet and Mobility Barometer, which questioned 8,605 businesses in 30 countries about their vehicle operations.

Shaun Sadlier, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “At a headline level, these results suggest that UK fleets are feeling pretty optimistic about the future and are continuing to shake off the effects of the pandemic. This is especially noteworthy given that GDP forecasts for this year predict sluggish growth, indicating that these businesses obviously expect to substantially outperform the wider economy.

“There are, however, some interesting variations among business of different sizes. For example, the largest surveyed – with more than 1,000 employees – foresee only a 27% increase and are also the most likely to predict fleet contraction, at 11%.”

He added that the figures for car fleets alone, excluding vans, were even more positive with an overall 43% predicting an increase.

“There’s a perhaps surprising contrast to the combined car and van figures here, with the largest fleets among the most confident. Exactly half (50%) believe they will see growth, although those in 10-99 employees category are the most optimistic at 51%.

“This trend probably illustrates the extent to which larger employers feel there is potential for both cash-takers continuing to return to company cars thanks to low taxation for electric vehicles (EVs), and for considerable growth in salary sacrifice schemes that centre on EVs.”

UK fleets also had higher growth expectations than the European average in every category and are among the top five most positive among fleets from all of the 30 countries surveyed, Shaun added.

“This perhaps chimes with the fact that UK businesses are forecast to outperform other major European economies. Looking at specific reasons why UK fleets expect to see expansion, by far the most popular at 81% - up from 76% last year - is that their company is expanding or planning new activities.

“However, it is also noteworthy that 39% see company vehicles as a key employee attraction and retention tool, 37% intend to propose vehicles to employees with no company car eligibility such as salary sacrifice arrangements, and 35% are also interested in car sharing.

“All of these percentages are increases on 2023 and therefore arguably indicate that the fleet is becoming more valuable to businesses.”